Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas recorded a 91.9°F peak at Love Field on 16 July 2026, confirming the market’s 0% YES probability for any outcome below that threshold was correct. The day’s 84.9°F six-hour low and 70.0°F dew point indicate muggy conditions, yet the high remained well within the 88–89°F range that now holds 100% of the market’s implied probability[1]. This outcome aligns with typical mid-July heat for the region, where highs frequently exceed 90°F despite occasional cloud cover or brief rain.

Historical July data for Dallas shows that temperatures below 88°F are rare, occurring in less than 5% of days over the past decade. The 2026 reading of 91.9°F sits comfortably within the norm, reinforcing why the market swiftly priced out lower ranges[2]. Traders should note that Wunderground’s official resolution source will lock in this figure, and no further temperature spikes are expected after the 12:00Z settlement window.

Watch for any late updates from Wunderground or National Weather Service bulletins that might adjust the recorded high, though such revisions are uncommon once the daily summary is published. With the settlement window closed and the frontrunner at 100%, the market has effectively resolved, leaving little room for volatility unless an official correction is issued[1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.