Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas has already cooled significantly since the weekend, with Monday’s early readings sitting well below the 90°F threshold needed to trigger a high-temperature resolution. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome reflects the fact that July 12, 2026, has passed without the Love Field Station recording a temperature in the upper ranges typically required for this market to resolve positively. Recent forecasts for mid-July 2026 show daily highs ranging from 96°F to 102°F, but the actual recorded maximum for Sunday, 12 July, was +86°F, far below the historical average warmest day of 96.1°F [1][4][7].

Historical data for Dallas in July shows that while the average warmest day reaches 96.1°F, extreme heat events pushing above 100°F are less common and usually tied to specific atmospheric patterns like persistent high-pressure ridges. The recorded high of 86°F on July 12 aligns more closely with cooler, cloudier conditions rather than the intense heatwaves that would have supported a YES resolution [4][7]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that temperatures below 90°F in mid-July are rare but not unprecedented, particularly when cloud cover or moisture limits daytime heating.

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground resolution data for Dallas Love Field (KDAL), which will confirm the exact maximum temperature recorded for the day. Any discrepancies between forecast models and actual station readings could signal data anomalies, though the current 0% probability suggests the market has already priced in the confirmed cool outcome. Recent weather reports from the National Weather Service confirm mostly cloudy conditions with temperatures peaking around 97°F on earlier dates, but the specific July 12 reading remains the sole determinant for settlement [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.