Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing has already shifted into peak summer heat, with nearby airport forecasts pointing to highs in the mid-30s Celsius and the sort of humidity that keeps temperatures elevated well into the evening. One recent airport-specific outlook showed a daily high around 85–95°F for early August, while broader city guidance says 40°C+ days are common in August and short thunderstorms often arrive later in the day.[5][9][14]

That framing matters because the market settles on the **highest recorded temperature** at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport, not the afternoon forecast alone. August climatology at the airport sits around a 34°C average high, but historical August readings at Chongqing have also reached the 40°C range, with 4 August shown in one climate table at 34.6°C on average over prior years.[1][14] In other words, a zero-implied-probability position looks detached from the local summer baseline unless cloud cover, rain, or a cool air mass suppresses the day’s peak.

For traders, the main catalysts are the daytime heating curve, any thunderstorm timing, and whether rainfall arrives early enough to cap the maximum before the settlement window closes. Current short-range forecasts show patchy rain or light rain possibilities alongside highs around the mid-30s Celsius, which is the key risk to a lower print if showers build before the warmest part of the day.[3][11][19] Earlier weather-service updates should be watched for changes in cloud cover and storm timing, because those are the variables most likely to move the realised airport maximum.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.