Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing faces typical late-summer conditions on 14 August 2026, with the city's subtropical climate delivering sustained heat through the peak season. The current 0% probability assigned to the highest temperature outcome suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. August represents Chongqing's hottest month, with historical daily maxima consistently exceeding 35°C; the city recorded 40.3°C on 16 August 2013 and regularly sees temperatures in the 37–39°C band during mid-August.

The 0% reading warrants scrutiny given Chongqing's meteorological patterns. Daily highs in August have rarely fallen below 32°C over the past two decades, and the probability distribution should reflect this baseline. Traders should examine whether the market has simply not yet attracted sufficient volume to price multiple temperature bands, or whether the crowd has concentrated bets on a single narrow range. Historical volatility in daily maxima during August—typically 2–4°C swings between consecutive days—means weather forecasts issued in early August carry meaningful uncertainty.

The settlement mechanism specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station as the authoritative source, which is critical given occasional discrepancies between summary displays and granular observation records. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Weather Underground in the week preceding 14 August, as any unusual weather patterns—monsoon activity, cloud cover anomalies, or pressure system shifts—could materially alter expected temperature ranges.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.