Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

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Market context

Chengdu is starting the day under hot, humid summer conditions, with recent forecasts keeping daytime highs in the mid-30s Celsius and only limited relief from cloud or rain. Live and forecast feeds point to temperatures around 35–36°C today, which keeps the market focused on whether the airport station can print a distinctly hotter afternoon maximum rather than merely a typical July heat peak.[4][8][9]

That matters because July in Chengdu is already one of the city’s hottest and wettest periods, with common daytime ranges around 30–35°C and occasional spikes higher when sunshine breaks through. Travel and forecast sources describe July as both muggy and rain-prone, with some days reaching 38°C, so a zero-implied probability is unusually conservative unless cloud cover and showers cap the afternoon upside more firmly than expected.[5][7][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the timing of cloud build-up, any afternoon thunderstorm risk, and how much rainfall reaches the airport station itself, since convective showers can quickly suppress the day’s maximum. There are no relevant policy or event-driven announcements here; the market will be driven mainly by the evolving intraday weather picture and any official forecast updates from the surrounding hours, with airport observations and nearby station trends the most useful guide to whether the high lands in the upper 30s or settles closer to the mid-30s.[3][8][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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