Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July heatwave has shifted sharply in the last 48 hours, with thunderstorms rolling through the Sichuan basin and pushing daytime highs down from the mid-30s°C to around 29–31°C. This cooling trend directly explains the crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome above 34°C on 20 July, as the atmosphere has lost the sustained high-pressure grip that typically drives extreme heat in the region.

Historically, Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport records July highs between 30–35°C, with only rare spikes above 38°C during prolonged dry spells [8]. The market’s current pricing aligns with this baseline: the frontrunner outcome is 38°C at 100% probability, suggesting traders are betting on a late rebound to pre-storm heat levels rather than continued suppression [3]. However, the 0% chance for “34°C or below” appears inconsistent with recent cooling, hinting at a potential mispricing if the storm system lingers.

Traders should monitor the Thursday afternoon thunderstorm forecast and the associated humidity spike, which could delay any heat recovery until late July [6]. The key dependency is whether the high-pressure ridge re-establishes before 20 July; if not, temperatures may stay capped near 31°C. Wunderground’s daily record for ZUUU will be the sole settlement source, so real-time updates from AccuWeather’s radar and forecast pages offer the earliest signals of a shift [1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.