Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July 11 high has shifted sharply in the last 24 hours, with global ensemble models tightening around a 32–34°C band and pushing the 0% YES probability on extreme heat below prior levels [1]. This recalibration reflects reduced confidence in a 35°C+ spike, despite the city’s typical midsummer volatility.

Historical July climatology for Chengdu places average daily maxima near 30–32°C, though recent years show more frequent 35°C+ readings due to intensified heatwaves in the Sichuan Basin [4]. The market’s current frontrunner at 34°C (27%) and next-closest 35°C (22%) align with trader consensus that humidity and monsoon influences often cap extremes, even as peak heat hours can occasionally reach 39°C [1][2].

Traders should monitor tonight’s 18:00 CST update from the China Meteorological Administration for any revised heatwave advisories, alongside real-time Wunderground data for ZUUU (Chengdu Shuangliu) as the settlement clock ticks [1]. A sudden drop in overnight lows below 24°C or an unexpected rain event could further suppress the day’s peak, while sustained high-pressure ridges over the basin would reinforce the 34–35°C range [2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.