Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's August weather patterns show consistent high temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, with occasional peaks above 40°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence that temperatures will remain below the lowest threshold option, or sparse trading activity on this specific market. Historical August data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the official resolution station—indicates that daily highs typically range between 32–38°C, though the city has recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C in roughly one in every three to four August seasons over the past two decades.

The critical variable for this market is whether a high-pressure system or heat dome establishes itself over central China in mid-August 2026. China's meteorological forecasts and regional weather patterns from late July onwards will signal whether conditions favour above-normal temperatures. Traders should monitor updates from the China Meteorological Administration and international weather models (GFS, ECMWF) from early August, as these typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks. The settlement window closes at midday on 18 August, meaning the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu by that point determines the outcome; afternoon readings are therefore critical.

The 0% probability may undervalue tail-risk scenarios—notably, if a significant heat event occurs across the Sichuan basin in mid-August, temperatures could spike substantially above seasonal norms. Conversely, if monsoon moisture or cloud cover dominates, temperatures may cluster at the lower end of the range. Resolution depends entirely on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground, not summary figures.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.