Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's peak temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station, with the reading taken from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary section. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not currently pricing in any particular temperature range, indicating either uncertainty about which bracket will resolve or a lack of conviction across all options. August in Chengdu typically sees high temperatures between 28–35°C, though extremes occasionally push toward 37–38°C during heat waves.

Historical August data from Shuangliu shows that temperatures above 35°C occur in roughly 40–50% of years, with readings exceeding 36°C less common but not exceptional. The 2013 heat wave pushed Chengdu to 40.3°C, demonstrating the city's vulnerability to sustained high-pressure systems. Current atmospheric patterns and any developing anticyclones over central China in early August will be the primary driver of where the 14th falls within the typical range.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 14 August, as these typically provide reliable 7–10 day outlooks for major cities. Any significant heat alerts issued for Sichuan Province would signal elevated risk of temperatures in the upper ranges. The specific resolution source—Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shuangliu—means readings must be verified against that exact dataset rather than alternative weather stations or summary figures, which occasionally differ by 0.5–1°C.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.