Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s weather pattern still points to a hot start to the month, with early-August average highs typically around 31°C to 33°C and the city’s hottest-day climatology falling on 1 August. That matters because this market resolves to the **single highest temperature** recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on the day, not the daily mean, so a brief afternoon spike is enough to settle the contract in a higher band even if the day otherwise looks ordinary.[1][2][4]

For context, Chengdu’s August heat is usually warm to hot and humid, with typical highs around 29.8°C to 30.4°C and historical extremes well above 35°C on the warmest days. The market’s current 0% YES implies the crowd is effectively dismissing the chance of a notable heat spike, but the historical range shows that temperatures far above the monthly average are not rare in midsummer, especially when skies clear long enough for strong afternoon heating.[2][16][19]

The main catalysts are the day’s temperature trend, cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any late-morning or early-afternoon weather shifts around the airport. Chengdu’s summer climate is rainy as well as hot, so showers can cap the high if they arrive early, while a dry and sunny spell can quickly lift the reading towards the upper end of the usual August range.[2][12][16] Traders should watch the live airport observations and short-range forecasts through the settlement window, because the final number is determined by the airport station’s highest reported temperature on 1 August.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.