Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's peak temperature on 15 August 2026 will be measured at Gimhae International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's threshold to sit above realistic August highs for the region, though without visibility on the specific temperature bands offered, the pricing reflects either extreme confidence in moderate conditions or a mismatch between expected outcomes and available resolution ranges.

August temperatures in Busan historically cluster between 28–32°C as daily highs, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The city's coastal position moderates extremes compared to inland Korean regions, though the monsoon transition period (mid-August) can produce variability. Weather Underground's Daily Observations data from Gimhae has tracked reliably through previous summers, though discrepancies between the station's raw readings and the platform's summary figures have occasionally required clarification in similar markets.

The critical variable for August 2026 will be whether a Pacific high-pressure system dominates the peninsula during mid-month or whether monsoon moisture and cloud cover prevail. South Korea's Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by late July; traders should monitor their mid-range models (10–14 day outlooks) released in early August for signals of heat dome development. Sea surface temperatures in the Korea Strait and the timing of the summer monsoon's retreat will shape whether Busan experiences typical August warmth or anomalous heat, directly affecting whether temperatures breach whatever threshold this market's resolution bands specify.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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