Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Today) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 32°C | 99% |
| 33°C | 1% |
| 24°C or below | 0% |
| 25°C | 0% |
| 26°C | 0% |
| 27°C | 0% |
| 28°C | 0% |
| 29°C | 0% |
| 30°C | 0% |
| 31°C | 0% |
| 34°C or higher | 0% |
Market context
A weakly hot, unsettled setup is carrying into the morning in Busan, with forecast highs clustered around 83-86°F and a chance of early thunderstorms or cloud cover limiting how far the temperature can run. Time and Date’s extended forecast shows Mon 10 Aug at 83/77°F with “tstorms early” and overcast conditions, while AccuWeather gives a similar 86/74°F day with morning thunderstorms and then brighter skies later.[13][14]
That profile fits Busan’s August norm rather than an extreme heat spike. Historical August averages are around 87°F for the high, with typical daytime maxima near 29-30°C, and recent August comparisons from weather-history sites show highs in the mid-to-upper 80s Fahrenheit rather than anything materially above 90°F on most days.[1][8][16] For this market, the key question is whether the station’s highest reading at Gimhae Intl Airport falls into the upper-20s Celsius band or nudges into 31°C-plus territory; the current 0% YES pricing suggests the crowd is not expecting a very hot outlier.
The main catalysts are the timing and persistence of cloud, rain and wind around the airport station, because those can cap the daily peak even if the broader region briefly clears. Weather Underground’s resolution source is the Daily Observations table, so the decisive datapoint will be the highest recorded hourly temperature there, not the summary high/low box.[6] Traders should watch the next forecast updates and any shifting thunderstorm timing from the major forecast providers, since a delayed clearing window would make a lower Celsius range more likely.[11][14]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Highest temperature in Busan on August 10? on Prediction Today
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