Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s heat has been very much a daytime story over the past 24–48 hours, with the city already sitting in its climatological hottest stretch and August highs commonly landing around 29°C to 30°C, while forecast August daily highs are typically in the low-to-mid 30s °C at the upper end of the range.[2][13] That keeps the market’s current 0% YES pricing anchored to a fairly routine outcome: for this to settle in a higher bracket, the airport station would need to print an unusually strong afternoon maximum rather than an ordinary summer high.[5][16]

The historical frame matters because Busan’s records show that extreme heat is possible but not common. Monthly record highs in August have reached 37.3°C in the city climate tables, while other compiled Busan datasets put the August record high around 35.3°C to 37.3°C depending on station and period, which is well above normal August averages.[5][9][16] That gap between average and record is the reason traders should read a 0% YES as a statement about *today’s* expected distribution, not about what is physically possible in Busan in August.[2][11]

The main catalysts are the afternoon heat build-up, cloud cover, rainfall timing and any sea-breeze suppression or enhancement near Gimhae Intl Airport Station, because the market resolves on the day’s single highest observed temperature rather than the mean.[1][13][17] Any fresh local forecast update that shifts peak heating into clearer, sunnier midday hours would matter more than overnight conditions, while showers or earlier cloud would cap the ceiling. The practical watchpoint is whether today’s peak arrives before or after convective clouds develop, since that is what usually separates an ordinary August reading from a market-moving spike.[3][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.