Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22?

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Market context

A cold start in Buenos Aires has firmed the near-term temperature outlook rather than loosened it. The latest city forecasts and WMO guidance point to a brisk May pattern, with daytime highs around 13-15°C for 22 May and overnight lows near 7-9°C, which leaves little room for a late-afternoon spike at Ezeiza to break materially above the day’s normal range. With the settlement window already closed at noon UTC, the market is effectively asking whether the airport briefly warmed enough before midday to produce an outlier reading.

That is unusual, but not impossible. Late May in Buenos Aires is typically cool and seasonally stable, with average highs around 19-20°C in broader monthly climatologies, while daily maxima at this time of year more often sit in the low-to-mid teens. The current 0% YES price therefore reflects the market’s view that a high of 14°C or more is unlikely, not that it is physically impossible. In prior cool-season cases, the main risk to a low daily maximum has come from short-lived sunshine and lighter winds after a cold overnight start, rather than from any sustained warm spell.

Traders should watch the final airport observation from Wunderground’s SAEZ history page, plus any nearby-surface warming that could have developed before noon local time as cloud and wind eased. The practical catalysts are straightforward: cloud cover, wind direction off the River Plate, and the timing of the day’s warmest hour relative to the settlement cut-off. No local weather alert or disruptive synoptic event is needed for the market to move here; the key question is whether the airport managed to reach the low teens before the window closed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.