Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

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Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. Late May typically marks the transition into early summer across northern China, with daily highs in the 28–32°C range, though anomalies occur. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular outcome.

Historical records for Beijing in late May show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, maximum temperatures on 26 May ranged from 23°C to 34°C, reflecting the volatility of late-spring weather patterns before the monsoon season stabilises conditions. The interquartile range sits around 28–31°C, meaning roughly half of recorded instances fell within this band. Traders should reference the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any published anomaly indices for spring 2026, which would signal whether conditions are tracking warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal.

The settlement window closes at midday on 26 May 2026, giving traders access to real-time forecasts from major weather services in the days preceding resolution. Wunderground's historical data for Beijing Capital International Airport is typically finalised within 24–48 hours of the observation date. Traders monitoring this market should watch for any published spring climate outlooks from the CMA or regional meteorological bulletins issued in May 2026, as these often flag whether anomalous warmth or coolness is expected across the period.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.