Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders will have access to the full day's temperature data before final resolution. Currently, the crowd assigns zero probability to any specific outcome, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about May conditions or insufficient trader participation in this particular market.

May temperatures in Beijing typically range between 20–30°C, with historical data showing the airport station recording highs of 28–32°C during this period across recent decades. The 25th falls in late spring, when Beijing transitions toward early summer conditions. Comparable years reveal considerable year-to-year variation depending on whether subtropical air masses penetrate northward or cooler continental patterns persist. Understanding the typical distribution of May highs at this location provides the baseline against which any given day's outcome should be evaluated.

The key variables affecting the outcome are atmospheric circulation patterns in the week preceding 25 May and any anomalous weather systems crossing northern China. China's meteorological service publishes 10-day forecasts routinely, with updates becoming more reliable as the target date approaches. Traders should monitor whether persistent high-pressure systems establish themselves over the region or whether frontal systems bring cooler, cloudier conditions. The absence of current probability estimates suggests this market may lack sufficient liquidity or attention to generate meaningful price discovery at present.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.