Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 5 July 2026 is currently priced at 0% chance of hitting the target range, a sharp shift from yesterday’s 36% implied probability for exactly 30°C[7]. This recalibration follows a sudden drop in overnight humidity and a clear-sky forecast for the morning, which historically suppresses peak daytime highs in early July when rain clouds are absent[6]. The crowd now expects the day’s maximum to fall below the threshold, likely due to the lack of convective activity that typically drives temperatures above 35°C in this period[5].

Historically, early July in Beijing sees daytime highs averaging 31°C, with two-thirds of days exceeding that and reaching above 35°C, yet the wettest period—late July to early August—brings the most extreme peaks[1][5]. In 2023, the month’s highest temperature reached 40°C, while 2024 peaked at 37°C, but these extremes usually coincide with heavy rainfall between the 20th and 30th, not the first week[1][4]. The current 0% probability aligns with the pattern that the first week of July is cooler and less prone to record highs, especially without the monsoon-driven convection that fuels 38°C+ days[4].

Traders should monitor the 24-hour precipitation forecast and the timing of the next rain event, as the onset of the rainy season between 20–30 July is the primary catalyst for extreme heat[4]. A sudden shift in wind direction from south to north, or a drop in dew point below 70°F, would further confirm the low-probability outlook[6]. No official weather announcements are scheduled, but real-time updates from Wunderground and AccuWeather will provide the decisive data points for settlement[2]. The key dependency remains whether convective clouds develop before midday; without them, the day’s peak will likely stay under 33°C[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.