Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is currently under a cloudy sky with rain showers expected through Monday afternoon, suppressing any immediate heat spike at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station. Today’s forecast caps the maximum temperature at 33°C, with 17mm of precipitation and heavy rain overnight, creating a stark contrast to the dry, scorching conditions typically required for extreme highs. This active weather pattern explains the crowd-implied 0% probability for a record-breaking temperature, as the atmosphere is saturated and cooling rather than heating.

Historical data for July in Beijing shows the month is the hottest and wettest, with temperatures often reaching 40°C, yet frequent thunderstorms regularly interrupt heatwaves [2]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that when daily rainfall exceeds 10mm, maximum temperatures rarely exceed 34°C, aligning with today’s 33°C cap [10]. The 0% probability reflects this established correlation: wet, cloudy days in mid-July almost never produce the sustained high temperatures needed to trigger a YES resolution in this market.

Traders should monitor the hourly updates from Yr and Wunderground for any sudden shift in precipitation timing or cloud cover, as a break in the rain could allow temperatures to climb toward the 34–35°C range seen in recent forecasts [4][10]. The settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 13 July 2026, meaning the afternoon’s weather evolution is critical. Watch for announcements from the National Weather Service regarding the ZBAA station, as any correction to the precipitation forecast could alter the temperature trajectory before the market resolves [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.