Highest temperature in Beijing on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing is entering its peak heat window today, with the Beijing Capital International Airport Station poised to record its highest July temperature within the next few hours. The crowd-implied 98% probability for a specific temperature range reflects a sharp shift in the last 24 hours, as recent atmospheric models confirmed a persistent high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and driving temperatures upward. This real-time confirmation has eliminated the uncertainty that previously lingered over potential rain showers, solidifying the market’s direction.

Historical data frames this extreme probability as highly credible, given that July is consistently Beijing’s hottest and wettest month, with daytime temperatures typically climbing from 22°C in the early morning to 31°C by midday [2]. Recent comparable markets show similar patterns; for instance, a market on 2 July 2026 resolved to 34°C, aligning with the typical maximum range of 25°C to 33°C observed in recent years [1][3]. The 2023 peak of 40°C further demonstrates that temperatures can spike well above average, yet the current ridge suggests a stable, high-temperature day rather than an extreme outlier [2].

Traders should monitor the final Wunderground update for the station, which will settle the market at 12:00 UTC, and watch for any late-morning announcements regarding sudden convective activity that could disrupt the heat [2]. While the rainy season typically intensifies between 20–30 July, the first week of July remains the driest and hottest period, reducing the risk of precipitation interference [3]. No major weather announcements are scheduled for today, but the absence of cloud cover and the confirmed high-pressure system make the current probability a robust reflection of the underlying conditions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.