Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s early-August heat is still intact, but the latest guidance points to a fairly narrow ceiling rather than a runaway spike: forecasts for 3 August cluster around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with the official Hong Kong government city bulletin showing Beijing at 25–32°C and thunderstorm risk, while other August outlooks put the first days of the month around 35–37°C before a gradual cool-down later in the month.[3][2][5] With the settlement source tied to Beijing Capital International Airport, the market is really about whether the airport’s afternoon maximum briefly edges into the upper 30s or stays contained by cloud, rain, or outflow boundaries.

Historically, August in Beijing is hot and humid, with average highs around 30–31°C and frequent rain or thunderstorms that can trim the day’s peak.[14][15][16] That means a 0% implied chance on a higher temperature band may look aggressive unless traders are assuming widespread cloud cover or early precipitation; comparable seasonal guides consistently show enough spread for intraday highs to swing several degrees either side of the mean.[6][8][17]

The main catalysts are the timing and placement of convective showers, not a broad seasonal shift. Short-range forecasts emphasise thunderstorms and humidity on 3 August, and even modest changes in rain timing can suppress the airport’s maximum by several degrees or, if showers stay away until later, allow a brief hotter pulse before settling.[3][5][7] Traders should watch any updated China Meteorological Administration guidance, the midday Beijing forecast cycle, and airport-adjacent observation trends, because the settlement uses the day’s recorded high rather than the morning forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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