Highest temperature in Beijing on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's weather on 21 August 2026 will depend on monsoon patterns and any tropical systems affecting northern China during late summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside whatever range this market specifies, though without the exact temperature brackets visible, the consensus appears cautious about extreme heat on that particular date.

August in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 26–32°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that late August temperatures tend to moderate slightly compared to July and early August peaks, as the summer monsoon weakens. The Capital International Airport Station, which will provide the official reading, sits in an urban area where heat island effects can elevate recorded temperatures by 1–3°C above surrounding regions. Previous years' records indicate that sustained heat waves in Beijing usually occur in mid-to-late July rather than late August.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts from mid-August onwards, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat or tropical cyclone activity. Typhoon season peaks in August and September; any system tracking toward northern China could either suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall or, conversely, create unstable conditions that spike heat before arrival. The resolution mechanism specifies the Daily Observations table at Weather Underground rather than summary figures, so the precise station methodology and any data recording anomalies will matter for settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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