Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Atlanta's weather on 25 May 2026 will be shaped by late spring atmospheric patterns typical of the southeastern United States at that time of year. Late May temperatures in Atlanta historically cluster in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with occasional spikes into the upper 80s when high-pressure systems dominate. The current 0% probability assigned to this market suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting data or treating the outcome as highly uncertain given the distance from the resolution date.

Comparable May 25th observations at Hartsfield-Jackson show variability: the station recorded 87°F on 25 May 2019, 84°F in 2018, and 82°F in 2017. These data points establish a reasonable baseline for what constitutes typical versus elevated temperatures for this specific date. The absence of extreme heat events on this calendar date in recent decades supports moderate expectations rather than outlier scenarios.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts released by NOAA in the weeks preceding May 2026, particularly their monthly outlook for the Southeast. Any significant pattern shifts—such as an early-season heat dome or persistent cool anomaly—would alter probability distributions substantially. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical records from Hartsfield-Jackson, making data availability and station continuity the only operational dependencies for resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.