Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ankara’s highest temperature on 2 July 2026 is currently locked in by traders at 34°C, with a 99% implied probability, while the chance of any outcome below 29°C sits at 0%[1]. This tight clustering around 33–34°C reflects a short-range forecast consensus driven by building high pressure and clear skies, a pattern that has held firm over the last 24–48 hours[1]. The market’s 0% YES probability for lower ranges is not an anomaly but a direct consequence of this meteorological stability, which has pushed daily highs consistently into the mid-30s Celsius.

Historically, July in Ankara sees average highs of 29.9°C, yet recent years frequently breach 33°C under similar high-pressure systems, as seen in the July 1 outcome of 31°C which quickly escalated to 34°C by midday[3][9]. The current 0% probability for cooler ranges aligns with this trend, where clear skies and rising pressure have repeatedly suppressed overnight lows and amplified daytime peaks, making lower temperatures increasingly improbable as the season progresses[1][2].

Traders should monitor the next 24-hour forecast updates from Wunderground for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, specifically any shifts in pressure readings or cloud cover that could alter the 34°C trajectory[1]. While no immediate announcements are scheduled, the dependency on sustained high pressure means any sudden influx of cloud cover or wind could disrupt the current consensus, though such events remain rare in early July[2][7]. The settlement window ending 2026-07-02T12:00:00Z leaves little room for late adjustments, reinforcing the need to watch real-time data closely[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Ankara on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.