Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam is currently experiencing 25°C at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, with west-south-westerly winds and falling pressure, suggesting the day’s peak temperature is likely to settle near or just above this reading [3]. The market’s 0% probability for a “YES” outcome implies traders are confident the temperature will not exceed the specific threshold tied to that binary resolution, though the frontrunner outcome in the broader range market is 25°C at 54%, with 26°C second at 23% [1].

Historically, July is Amsterdam’s warmest month, with midday highs averaging around 22°C and nighttime lows near 13°C, though the weather remains precarious with frequent wet or cool spells [4]. Recent July 2026 data shows daily highs ranging from 67°F to 78°F (approximately 19°C to 26°C), aligning with the current market’s concentration on the 25–26°C band rather than extreme outliers [5]. This historical consistency explains why the crowd assigns negligible probability to temperatures far outside this narrow window.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official daily maximum at Schiphol, as settlement depends solely on this source [1]. With pressure falling and visibility excellent, any sudden shift in wind direction or cloud cover could alter the peak temperature before the 12:00Z settlement window closes. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the BBC’s live observations at Schiphol provide the most immediate indicator of whether the day will breach 26°C [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.