Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Sea surface temperatures in early 2026 have consistently outpaced the 2023 benchmark by roughly 0.13°C, yet the market’s 34% implied probability for a first-place ranking reflects a sharp divergence between early warmth and annual certainty [1]. Historical precedents show that strong initial heat does not guarantee a record year; Berkeley Earth’s March update noted a similar early trajectory before downgrading the 2026 record-warmth likelihood to just 5% as La Niña cooling patterns emerged [3][4]. While 2025 settled as the second-warmest year, current models suggest 2026 will likely mirror or slightly cool relative to 2025, pointing toward a probable fourth-place finish rather than a top spot [4].

Traders must monitor the timing and intensity of the El Niño event forecast to develop in mid-to-late 2026, as this is the primary catalyst that could push annual averages past 2024’s record [3][5]. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble now indicates a higher agreement that monthly anomalies will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by November, though the spread remains unusually wide from 1.5°C to over 2.5°C [2]. Key data releases include the monthly NOAA Global Climate Reports and the updated NMME projections, which will clarify whether the oceanic transition accelerates enough to secure a first-place rank or if cooling trends will dominate the latter half of the year [2][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.