Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Today Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Today → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Today → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Today → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Today → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Today → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Today.
Active sub-markets
Market context
The key change in the past 24-48 hours is that there is still no confirmed upload from MrBeast Gaming, even though the channel’s own posting pattern points to a Saturday midday Eastern release. MrBeast Gaming says it posts a new video every Saturday at noon Eastern, but if no upload arrives by the market’s deadline, the contract resolves to the lowest range bracket.[9]
That makes the current 0% implied YES more consistent with the absence of a scheduled release than with any strong read on demand. Comparable MrBeast videos often launch with very large first-day counts, but the relevant uncertainty here is not audience size; it is whether a qualifying video appears in time and how broadly the video is distributed on a day-one basis. MrBeast’s main channel and related projects have continued to produce high-reach uploads and large-format collaborations, which keeps upside intact if a Gaming video does land.[5][10]
The main catalysts are simple: an explicit upload, a teased premiere, or a delayed announcement from the MrBeast team. Recent coverage of MrBeast’s upcoming uploads shows he has been previewing multiple concepts on social media, but without a firm release date in at least one recent case.[2] If the channel follows its usual Saturday cadence, the next few hours matter most; if nothing posts, traders should expect the probability to stay pinned unless an out-of-cycle upload is announced.[9]
Methodology
This page reviews # of views of next MrBeast gaming video on day 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?
- Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade # of views of next MrBeast gaming video on day 1? on Prediction Today
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