Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Platform comparison

Market context

Nigel Farage’s Clacton by-election is now in the final stretch, and the live second-place market still centres on a split field rather than the winner himself. Recent pricing has Count Binface firmly ahead for runner-up, while Reform UK and other named outsiders are trading at much lower levels; one snapshot put Count Binface at 68¢, Reform UK at 8¢ and Reclaim at 5¢, with the market due to settle on the candidate who finishes second by valid votes.[1] Polling-style uncertainty is less relevant here than vote-fragmentation risk, because the contract is about the runner-up, not the overall victor.[1][2]

For context, this market has behaved like a novelty-candidate race for second place, with Count Binface consistently attracting the largest implied share across venues. Earlier snapshots showed him around 61%-67% on other prediction platforms, while the next cluster of contenders sat in single digits, which helps explain why the crowd-implied YES price is only 2% for any specific alternative outcome.[2][3][4] The Clacton contest itself is unusual in scale: Tendring District Council said the ballot contains 34 candidates, reportedly the largest field ever for a UK parliamentary election, which increases the chance of vote splitting among the minor names.[7]

For traders, the key catalysts are procedural rather than policy-driven: the candidate list is already set, the vote is scheduled for 13 August, and any late withdrawals, ballot corrections or official guidance from Tendring District Council would matter more than campaign chatter.[1][7] Final resolution will depend on the council’s count and declared ranking of valid votes, so the main watchpoints are turnout dynamics, how many protest or fringe votes coalesce, and whether any lesser-known candidate can overtake the current second-place pack before polling day.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.