Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain in a holding pattern as the Trump administration enters its second term, with no formal bilateral talks scheduled and both parties maintaining hardened positions on nuclear programme restrictions and sanctions relief. The 19% probability reflects persistent scepticism about a comprehensive agreement emerging within the 18-month window, though the political landscape has shifted considerably since Trump's first term withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for rapid diplomatic reversal. The original JCPOA took roughly two years of intensive multilateral negotiations to conclude, and Trump's previous approach prioritised maximum pressure campaigns over dialogue. However, the current geopolitical context differs markedly: Iran's nuclear programme has advanced significantly since 2018, potentially creating mutual incentives for a negotiated settlement that neither side possessed during Trump's first administration. The administration has signalled openness to "better deals" but has not committed resources to active negotiation channels.

Traders should monitor statements from Trump's special envoy for Iran and any scheduling of preliminary talks, particularly following developments in Middle Eastern regional conflicts that could either accelerate or derail diplomatic momentum. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg indicates the administration is conducting internal reviews of Iran policy rather than initiating contact, suggesting any agreement would require a substantial shift in approach before mid-2026. Congressional dynamics and potential sanctions escalation remain critical variables affecting the feasibility of any signed accord.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.