Trump out as President by May 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Trump remains in office with no announced plans to resign or face removal proceedings as of late January 2026. The 0% implied probability reflects the absence of any immediate constitutional or political mechanism forcing departure within the next sixteen months. Markets pricing permanent exit at zero suggest traders view the threshold for involuntary removal—conviction and Senate conviction on impeachment charges, or a successful 25th Amendment Section 4 invocation—as effectively unreachable in the current political environment.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974 facing near-certain impeachment conviction; no sitting US President has been removed via the 25th Amendment. The constitutional bar for Section 4 removal requires the Vice President plus a Cabinet majority to declare the President unfit, followed by Congressional supermajority confirmation—a scenario requiring extraordinary consensus among executive branch officials. Impeachment conviction demands a two-thirds Senate supermajority, a threshold unmet since Andrew Johnson's near-miss in 1868.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in ongoing legal proceedings, particularly any conviction outcomes that might trigger impeachment discussions in Congress, though Republican Senate control makes conviction unlikely. Changes to Cabinet composition or public statements from the Vice President regarding fitness could signal shifting removal dynamics. Health-related announcements or unexpected political fractures within the administration represent the primary catalysts; absent such developments, the zero probability reflects rational assessment of institutional barriers to permanent presidential exit.

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by May 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.