Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains firmly in office with no credible resignation or removal signal emerging in the last 48 hours, keeping the crowd-implied probability of him ceasing as President by 31 July at just 1% [1]. This near-zero pricing aligns with the broader market view that his tenure before 2027 carries only an 8% risk of exit, suggesting the shorter window is seen as virtually certain to end normally [2].

Historically, US presidents have only left office prematurely through death, resignation, or removal in rare cases: Nixon resigned in 1974 amid impeachment, while Ford, Reagan, and Bush all completed their terms without interruption. No president since 1900 has been removed under the 25th Amendment, and temporary invocations under Section 3 or 4 have never resulted in permanent exit. The 1% price reflects this deep institutional stability, where removal requires overwhelming congressional and judicial consensus that currently shows no traction [3].

Traders should monitor the White House’s emergency declarations and any Federal Register executive orders, particularly those tied to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, which could escalate into constitutional challenges [3][5]. A key catalyst is the scheduled July 22 UNESCO withdrawal deadline, which may trigger legal disputes if opposed by Congress. Recent Brookings analysis notes high turnover in senior advisers but no Cabinet-level instability, reinforcing the low risk of removal [8]. Any announcement of resignation before 31 July would immediately resolve the market to “Yes,” regardless of when it takes effect [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump out as President by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.