Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Kaitlin Quevedo faces Leolia Jeanjean in the first round of Roland Garros on 25 May 2026, with the match originally scheduled for 5:00 AM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that this fixture will proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive winner within the settlement window closing 1 June.

Jeanjean, a French player competing on home clay, typically commands support in early-round matchups at Roland Garros, though her ranking and recent form determine whether that translates to genuine competitive advantage. Quevedo, an American competitor, enters as the outsider in terms of crowd dynamics but clay-court performance varies considerably based on recent tournament results and head-to-head records. Historical first-round matches at Roland Garros rarely extend beyond the scheduled date by more than 24 hours unless weather disruption occurs, which would trigger the 7-day extension clause in the market rules. The probability anchored at 100% YES suggests traders view completion and a clear winner as near-certain.

The key variable for settlement hinges on whether the match occurs without cancellation or indefinite postponement. Roland Garros scheduling typically accommodates weather delays within a single day, and the tournament's infrastructure rarely forces matches beyond the week-long buffer. Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any weather alerts for late May in Paris. Tournament announcements regarding court assignments and match order typically arrive 48 hours before play, providing final confirmation of the fixture's status.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.