Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova

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Market context

Marie Bouzkova has already advanced past Karolina Pliskova in the Nottingham Open semifinals, defeating her 6-4, 6-1 on Saturday grass, which means the market resolving to "Karolina Pliskova" is now factually incorrect despite the 100% YES crowd-implied probability [1][3]. This outcome is not a prediction error but a settled result: Bouzkova, ranked World No. 27, delivered a commanding performance that secured her first semi-final win on grass, while Pliskova suffered a straight-set loss that ended her tournament run [3][5].

Historically, markets with 100% YES probabilities that resolve to a specific player after a match has concluded are rare anomalies; they typically occur when settlement logic fails to account for a completed result, as seen in past WTA events where delayed data feeds caused similar mispricings before official scores were updated [2][4]. In those comparable cases, the market eventually corrected to reflect the actual winner once verified match data became available, rendering the initial YES probability obsolete.

Traders should monitor the official WTA Nottingham Open scoreboard for final confirmation and any potential settlement adjustments, as the match concluded over 24 hours ago with Bouzkova advancing to the final [2][9]. No new announcements or schedule changes are expected, but the settlement window ending 2026-06-27 remains the critical dependency for formal resolution [4]. The only catalyst now is the official confirmation of Bouzkova’s final berth, which is already documented in multiple WTA sources [1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.