Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Coco Gauff

Platform comparison

Market context

Coco Gauff advances against Claire Liu in the Wimbledon WTA third round, a result that has already occurred in straight sets, rendering the market’s current 0% YES probability for Claire Liu a factual reflection of the completed match. Gauff won 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 on Court No. 1, confirming her status as the clear winner in this all-American clash [5][7]. The match began at 6:00 AM ET on Friday, 3 July 2026, and concluded within the standard timeframe, with no cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days to trigger the 50-50 settlement clause [3].

Historically, all-American third-round encounters at Wimbledon since 2020 have favoured the higher-ranked player, with Gauff’s 2-0 head-to-head lead over Liu (though never on grass) aligning with this pattern [4]. In comparable cases, such as Gauff’s 2024 victory over Venus Williams on the same court, the seeded player’s experience on grass proved decisive even when the unseeded opponent held a winning streak [6]. Liu’s five-match winning run and qualifier status did not offset Gauff’s No. 7 ranking and second consecutive grass-court win, a milestone she had not achieved since 2024 [2][6].

Traders should monitor official ESPN broadcast confirmations and the final order of play release, which confirmed the match time as “not before 12 p.m. ET” on Court No. 1 [3]. No further announcements are expected, as the match has concluded, and the settlement window ending 2026-07-10T10:00:00Z will simply formalise the result [2]. The key dependency is the absence of any post-match dispute or retirement reversal, which would be rare given the straight-set outcome and Gauff’s dominant performance [5]. With the result already settled, the market’s 0% probability for Claire Liu is both accurate and irreversible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Coco Gauff across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.