Roland Garros WTA: Julia Grabher vs Rebecca Sramkova

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Julia Grabher and Rebecca Sramkova are scheduled to meet in the first round of Roland Garros on 25 May 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that this match will proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive winner. The settlement window closes on 1 June, allowing a six-day buffer beyond the original date for completion, though Roland Garros typically concludes first-round matches within 48 hours of scheduling.

Grabher, an Austrian player ranked outside the top 100, faces Sramkova, a Slovak competitor with similar ranking status. First-round matches between players of comparable lower-ranked standing rarely feature significant upsets or notable form disparities that would shift probability materially. Historical data from Roland Garros shows that matches between unseeded players in the opening round proceed without cancellation in over 99% of cases, barring extreme weather or injury during play. The clay-court surface at Roland Garros has proven resilient to weather delays compared to other Grand Slams, with first-round scheduling typically absorbing any rain interruptions within the allocated timeframe.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any weather alerts issued by the French Tennis Federation in the week preceding 25 May. Court assignments and exact match times, typically finalised three to five days before play, could affect scheduling but rarely result in cancellation. Injury withdrawals from either player would trigger resolution at 50-50 only if announced after the match begins; pre-match withdrawals would simply change the opponent. The settlement window's six-day extension provides sufficient margin for weather-related delays without triggering the tie resolution clause.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.