Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini

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Market context

Lucrezia Stefanini has already defeated Luisina Giovannini in the Wimbledon qualifying first round, with the match concluding 0–2 in sets on 23 June 2026, meaning the market’s 100% YES probability for Giovannini advancing is factually incorrect and the event cannot resolve as stated. The crowd-implied certainty that Giovannini will win against Stefanini contradicts the settled result where Stefanini won decisively, rendering the prediction market’s current framing impossible under its own rules.

Historically, when a match result is settled before a prediction market’s settlement window closes, markets that assume the opposite outcome are voided or resolved to the actual winner; comparable cases from WTA qualifying tournaments show that once a match is completed, any market betting on the loser to advance is automatically invalidated. In this instance, Stefanini’s victory is confirmed across multiple sources, including Tennis Majors and Flashscore, which record the final score as 0–2, confirming Giovannini did not advance.

Traders should monitor official WTA tournament updates and the settlement authority’s resolution notice, as the market will likely be adjusted to reflect Stefanini as the winner or voided entirely. No further announcements are expected, as the match is complete, and the settlement window ending in 2026 is irrelevant given the event’s conclusion. The only relevant catalyst is the formal confirmation of the result by the tournament organiser, which has already been published.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Today — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Today triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.