Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu

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Market context

The match has already been decided: Ayla Aksu beat Alina Charaeva in the Figueira da Foz semi-final, so the market’s 100% YES pricing on Charaeva is now stale. Tennis.com lists the contest as completed, with Aksu advancing after a three-set result, which is the key settlement fact for a market that resolves on who progresses rather than who was favoured pre-match.[1]

That makes the historical frame straightforward: pre-match signals pointed more towards Charaeva on recent form, with 365Scores noting she had won four of her last five matches, while Flashscore had Charaeva ranked higher than Aksu at the time of the semi-final.[2][3] But this was still a close WTA 125 semi-final on hard court, and the live outcome shows why market probabilities in this range can be fragile when the price is being driven by expectation rather than completed result.

For traders watching the final settlement, the only real catalyst now is confirmation that the match result is fully recorded and no cancellation or abnormal void condition applies. SofaScore and Tennis.com both show the fixture as completed, so there is no obvious scheduling dependency left unless an official data feed were to be corrected after the fact.[1][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.