Wimbledon WTA: Amanda Anisimova vs Sofia Kenin

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the second-round Wimbledon WTA match between Amanda Anisimova and Sofia Kenin, which has already concluded with Anisimova winning 6-2, 6-4, 6-6[1]. The market’s 100% YES crowd-implied probability for Anisimova advancing is now fully justified by the live result, removing any uncertainty about the outcome. This settlement is immediate, as the match was completed on 2 July 2026 at 10:00 UTC, well within the seven-day resolution window [6].

Historically, similar markets where a player retires or wins in straight sets have resolved cleanly with no 50-50 splits, provided the match was not abandoned before a winner was determined [2]. In this case, Anisimova’s straight-set victory over Kenin mirrors past cases where the favourite advanced decisively, reinforcing the reliability of the current probability. The head-to-head record, though Kenin leads 1-0, is overshadowed by Anisimova’s 27-13 win record on grass and her status as sixth seed [5].

Traders should monitor the official Wimbledon results page for any post-match disqualifications or administrative changes, though no such issues are currently reported [1]. The next catalyst is the announcement of Anisimova’s third-round opponent, expected within 24 hours, which will confirm her continued progression [4]. No new injury updates or schedule shifts have emerged since the match concluded, and the FanDuel odds page remains static, reflecting the settled outcome [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Wimbledon WTA: Amanda Anisimova vs Sofia Kenin across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.