ITF M25 Slovenj Gradec Men: Kirill Kivattsev vs Frederic Schlossmann

Platform comparison

Market context

The ITF M25 Slovenj Gradec men's match between Kirill Kivattsev and Frederic Schlossmann was scheduled for 20 August 2026 but has not yet occurred as of the current settlement window. The 0% implied probability suggests either the match has been cancelled, postponed beyond the seven-day grace period, or one player has withdrawn. ITF M25 events—the second-tier professional circuit—experience higher cancellation and withdrawal rates than ATP tournaments, particularly when players are managing injury recovery or tournament scheduling conflicts across multiple circuits.

Historical precedent from ITF M25 scheduling shows that matches frequently shift or fail to materialise when players prioritise higher-ranking events or when venue logistics create conflicts. Kivattsev, a Russian-born player competing on the ITF circuit, and Schlossmann, a Swiss competitor, have limited head-to-head history that would typically inform baseline odds. The extreme probability reading reflects either confirmed cancellation information or a technical resolution trigger rather than genuine uncertainty about match outcome.

Traders should monitor official ITF tournament updates and player social media for withdrawal announcements or rescheduling notices through 27 August. The settlement window closes at 08:30 UTC on that date, leaving a narrow window for match completion or clarification of cancellation status. Any match that begins but remains incomplete beyond seven days from the original date triggers the 50-50 resolution, so confirmation of either completion or formal cancellation becomes the critical catalyst for final settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.