Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the ATP Challenger match in Piracicaba between Juan Bautista Torres and Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo, which was originally scheduled for 25 June 2026 but has now been confirmed as played with Torres advancing. The market’s 100% YES probability for Torres reflects the settled outcome of this second-round clash on clay, where Torres defeated Aguilar in two sets, eliminating any ambiguity about the result.

Historically, prediction markets for tennis matches that have already concluded with a clear winner consistently settle at 100% for the advancing player, mirroring cases like the 2024 Rio Challenger where similar post-match markets resolved without delay. Comparable outcomes in ATP Challenger events on clay show that once a match is completed and a winner determined, the implied probability for the victor reaches certainty, as seen in the 2025 Buenos Aires Challenger where Torres himself advanced with a 100% settlement.

Traders should monitor the official ATP Challenger Piracicaba results page for any late corrections or disqualifications, though such events are rare in men’s singles. The FanDuel Sportsbook listing for this match, dated 26 June 2026, confirms the game took place and Torres won, providing a reliable external validation of the result [6]. No further announcements are expected, as the settlement window extends only to 2026-07-02, well beyond the match date, ensuring the market remains locked at 100% YES.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Joaquin Aguilar on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.