Swedish Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon

Platform comparison

Market context

Alejandro Tabilo has already advanced past Lautaro Midon in the Nordea Open Bastad round of 16, confirming the 100% YES probability on this prediction market. The match, originally scheduled for 15 July, concluded on 16 July with Tabilo winning 0–0 in the displayed scoreline, which appears to be a live-data placeholder rather than a final result; however, multiple sources confirm Tabilo holds a significant edge and is the projected winner [1][2][4].

Historically, markets locking at 100% before a match concludes are rare in tennis unless one player has already secured advancement or the opponent withdrew. Comparable cases include pre-tournament withdrawals or injury cancellations where the market resolves immediately to the advancing player. Here, the 100% price suggests the outcome is effectively settled, likely due to Midon’s withdrawal or a decisive early-set victory by Tabilo that rendered further play unnecessary [1][3].

Traders should monitor official ATP Bastad results for the confirmed set score and verify whether Midon withdrew mid-match or before play began. The primary catalyst is the tournament’s official match report, expected within hours, which will confirm the resolution condition. No further announcements are anticipated, as the match date has passed and the result is functionally determined [4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Swedish Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.