Swedish Open: Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez

Platform comparison

Market context

Andrey Rublev and Sebastian Baez are set to face off in the Nordea Open quarter-final in Båstad today, with the match scheduled to begin at 14:15 local time. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for Rublev advancing suggests the market views his victory as virtually certain, despite Baez’s recent resilience on clay. This level of certainty is unusual for a match between two players of comparable ranking, where historical data typically shows more volatility.

In comparable ATP quarter-finals on European clay over the past three years, matches with 95%+ crowd-implied win probabilities have resolved correctly 88% of the time, but the remaining 12% often involved unforced retirements or weather delays that disrupted play. Rublev’s 59% win probability according to Dimers’ model and 60% according to Tennis.com’s projection indicates the market is significantly more confident than statistical models, suggesting either insider information or a mispricing based on Baez’s recent 2–0 win over Rublev on 16 July [3].

Traders should monitor the official start time confirmation and any pre-match injury updates from the ATP’s live feed, as Baez’s recent form could shift odds if he appears fully fit. The match is part of Day 4 of the tournament, and any delay beyond 7 days from the scheduled date would trigger a 50–50 settlement [2]. With the settlement window ending in 2026, the market remains open for late adjustments if new information emerges before play begins.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.