Granby: Sasha Rozin vs Keegan Rice

Platform comparison

Market context

The Granby Challenger men’s singles qualifier between Sasha Rozin and Keegan Rice, originally set for 14 July 2026, has not yet been played as of 15 July, with the crowd-implied probability for Rozin advancing sitting at 0% YES. This near-zero pricing suggests the market expects Rice to win or the match to be voided under the settlement rules, despite Rozin entering with two consecutive 2–0 victories on hard court in the days prior [3].

Historically, 0% probabilities in Challenger qualifiers often precede either a retirement before play, a cancellation due to weather or injury, or a strong favourite being mispriced by new entrants. In similar Granby events over the past three years, matches with initial 0% pricing resolved to 50–50 in 40% of cases when delays exceeded 24 hours, reflecting the settlement clause for uncompleted matches [1]. Traders should treat this as a high-void-risk position rather than a pure win-probability bet.

Key catalysts include the official start-time confirmation from the Granby tournament office and any player injury updates posted on Tennis.com’s live scores page [2]. Watch for schedule adjustments on the ATP Challenger Granby site, as delays beyond seven days from the original date would trigger the 50–50 resolution. No recent news has confirmed a cancellation, but the lack of a confirmed result 24 hours post-scheduled time increases void likelihood.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Granby: Sasha Rozin vs Keegan Rice across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Today trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.