Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones

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Market context

The Ilkley grass-court tournament will host a first-round encounter between Italian qualifier Filippo Romano and British wildcard Jack Pinnington Jones on 11 June 2026. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that this match will proceed as scheduled and produce a decisive winner within the settlement window. No recent developments in the past 48 hours have altered the fixture's status, though grass-court tournaments remain weather-dependent and subject to scheduling adjustments typical of the British summer circuit.

Romano enters as an unseeded player with limited recent ATP-level exposure, whilst Pinnington Jones holds a home advantage at a domestic event where wildcards frequently receive favourable scheduling. Historical precedent from Ilkley suggests first-round matches typically complete within a single day unless weather intervenes; cancellations or extended delays beyond seven days are rare at this established tournament. The current probability assignment suggests traders view completion as highly probable given the fixture's early-round positioning and the tournament's track record of maintaining its schedule.

The key variables traders should monitor include weather forecasts for Yorkshire in mid-June and any late withdrawals from either player. Tournament draws are typically finalised by early June, and any injury announcements would surface through ATP communications or official Ilkley channels. The settlement window extends to 18 June, providing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling if rain disrupts play—a material consideration for grass tournaments but historically manageable at established venues.

Methodology

We track Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Today is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Today?

Zero. Prediction Today routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.