Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez

Platform comparison

Market context

The Estoril Open match between Henrique Rocha and Pedro Martinez has already concluded, with Pedro Martinez advancing to the next round after defeating Rocha 7-5, 7-5 on clay in the first round on 20 July 2026[3][4][5]. The market’s 0% YES probability for Rocha reflects this settled outcome, as the event determining resolution occurred within the settlement window’s opening day.

Historically, prediction markets tied to completed tennis matches that resolve before the settlement deadline collapse to near-zero or 100% probabilities once the result is confirmed, as seen in prior ATP tournaments where early-round results were posted within hours of play[3][7]. In this case, the decisive match finished over 24 hours before the current timestamp, eliminating any uncertainty about the outcome and rendering the market effectively settled.

Traders should monitor official ATP Tour communications for any rare post-match disputes or administrative reversals, though such events are exceptionally uncommon in professional tennis[11]. No further schedule dependencies exist, as Martinez’s next fixture against Luciano Darderi is already confirmed, and Rocha’s tournament participation has ended[3]. The settlement will resolve to “Pedro Martinez” with certainty unless an extraordinary cancellation or tie occurs, which the rules explicitly exclude from altering the 50-50 default.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Estoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Today. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.