Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Navone and Munar are due to play a Geneva Open quarter-final today, and the market is still showing 0% for Navone despite the match being on the schedule at Centre Court. That leaves the key question as whether the contest starts on time and produces a completed result before the settlement window closes, rather than any broader uncertainty over the draw.

On comparable clay-court ATP matches, pre-match pricing has usually tracked recent form and surface pedigree quite closely. Here, Navone has been priced narrowly ahead by outside books, with previews pointing to a tight three-setter and Navone’s win over Cameron Norrie in the previous round standing out. Munar, meanwhile, reaches the last eight as a recognised clay specialist, so a low or zero market price on Navone looks more like a stale or mis-set contract than a view that the Spaniard is without a route through.

The main catalysts are straightforward: official order-of-play updates, any delay to the Centre Court schedule, and whether the quarter-final is completed in full or interrupted by weather or retirement. Sofascore listed the match for 11:00 UTC on 21 May, and Tennis Tonic’s preview also expects it to go ahead on Thursday afternoon local time, which reduces the immediate risk of a no-result. If the match is started but not finished, the settlement rules on retirement will matter more than pre-match form.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.