National Bank Open: Mariano Navone vs Arthur Fils

Platform comparison

Market context

Arthur Fils has been priced as the clear favourite against Mariano Navone in Montréal, and the market’s 19% yes level implies Navone is still a live but underdog outcome rather than a coin flip. The most recent matchup data are straightforward: Navone leads the head-to-head 1-0 after beating Fils in straight sets on clay at the 2022 Prague Challenger, but that result came on a very different surface and outside tour-level conditions.[1][8]

That makes the current number easier to read as a surface-and-form question. Fils has the stronger overall hard-court profile in 2026, while Navone’s record is materially better on clay than on faster courts; one recent preview also notes Navone’s hard-court win over Valentin Vacherot was his first career top-30 hard-court victory, whereas Fils has still taken the heavier share of hard-court wins this season.[3][5][12] In pricing terms, a 19% probability is consistent with Navone needing either a drop-off from Fils or a match that skews towards long rallies and return pressure rather than free points.[2][18]

The immediate catalysts are practical rather than tactical: whether the match is played on schedule, whether there is any weather or court-delay disruption in Montréal, and whether either player is reported with a fitness issue before first ball. The listed start time is Thursday afternoon in Montréal, and sportsbook prices released close to the match had Fils around -335 and Navone around +245, which sits broadly in line with the market’s underdog framing.[2][7] If the contest is not completed, the settlement rules also matter: an abandonment, tie, or delay beyond seven days without a winner would push the market to 50-50 rather than a straight Navone or Fils resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Mariano Navone vs Arthur Fils across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

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