Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Munar and Hurkacz are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds at Roland Garros on 24 May 2026. The 44% implied probability for Munar reflects a significant underdog position against the Polish player, who has consistently ranked higher and performed better on clay in recent seasons. No material developments have shifted either player's form or availability in the past 48 hours, though the market's current odds suggest traders are pricing in Hurkacz's baseline advantages rather than recent momentum swings.

Historically, Munar has won roughly 35–40% of matches against top-50 opponents on clay courts over the past three seasons, whilst Hurkacz holds a 2–1 head-to-head record against the Spaniard. Hurkacz's clay-court record improved markedly after 2023, reaching the French Open quarter-finals in 2024 and maintaining a top-20 ranking. Munar's best clay performances come in smaller tournaments; he has rarely advanced deep at majors. The 44% probability appears calibrated to Munar's historical underdog rate rather than any recent shift in relative capability.

Traders should monitor injury reports through the settlement window, particularly any late announcements regarding either player's fitness or withdrawal. Weather conditions at Roland Garros—specifically court speed and humidity—can favour Munar's baseline game if conditions slow the court, though Hurkacz's serve remains a structural advantage on any surface. The match timing at 5:00 AM ET may also affect viewership and real-time information flow, potentially creating pricing inefficiencies if early results emerge before US market hours.

Methodology

This page reviews Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.