Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Medjedovic and Hanfmann are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of Roland Garros on 24 May 2026, with the 89% crowd probability heavily favouring the Serbian player. The match sits in the early stages of the tournament's main draw, where upsets are less common than deeper rounds but remain a regular occurrence. No significant changes to either player's status or fitness have emerged in the past 48 hours that would explain the current pricing.

Medjedovic, ranked around 50th on the ATP, has shown steady improvement on clay courts over recent seasons, whilst Hanfmann, hovering near 100th, remains a capable but inconsistent performer on the surface. Historical data from similar matchups at Roland Garros suggests that when a player ranked 40–60 faces one ranked 90–110, the higher-ranked player wins approximately 75–80% of the time. The 89% probability reflects confidence beyond this baseline, implying market participants view Medjedovic as notably stronger on clay or expect Hanfmann to carry injury concerns into the tournament.

Traders should monitor the official Roland Garros draw confirmation and any late injury announcements from either camp through to the match start. Court conditions on the day—particularly clay state and weather—can shift outcomes in early-round encounters. The settlement window closes 31 May at 09:00 UTC, providing a one-week buffer for scheduling delays, though Roland Garros typically completes first-round matches within three days of the scheduled date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.