Brownsburg: Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo

Platform comparison

Market context

Stefan Kozlov faces Aidan Mayo in Brownsburg on 11 August 2026, with the 78% implied probability favouring the American. The match was originally scheduled for 1:00 PM ET, though confirmation of the exact court assignment and any weather-related adjustments remains pending as the settlement window closes on 18 August. No material changes to either player's status have emerged in the past 48 hours; the probability reflects baseline expectations rather than a recent shift in circumstances.

Kozlov's career record against lower-ranked opponents and his recent performance trajectory inform the current odds. At ATP level, he has historically converted matches against players outside the top 100 at rates consistent with this 78% assessment, though surface conditions and tournament context matter significantly. Mayo, competing primarily on the Challenger circuit, presents a measurable but surmountable challenge. Historical precedent suggests that when a player of Kozlov's ranking faces a Challenger-level opponent in an ATP event, the favourite wins roughly 75–80% of the time, aligning closely with current market pricing.

Traders should monitor the ATP's official draw confirmation and any injury reports filed before match day. Weather forecasts for Brownsburg on 11 August may influence court conditions and scheduling. Withdrawal announcements—whether from Kozlov or Mayo—would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. The settlement window's 7-day buffer beyond the scheduled date provides some protection against minor delays, but any cancellation without rescheduling within that window would also resolve to 50-50.

Methodology

This page reviews Brownsburg: Stefan Kozlov vs Aidan Mayo across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Today, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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