Kosice: Guido Justo vs Lilian Marmousez

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Guido Justo and Lilian Marmousez are scheduled to meet in Kosice on 25 May 2026, with the winner advancing in what appears to be a lower-tier ATP or Challenger event. The 0% implied probability suggests either the market has not yet attracted liquidity, or traders hold strong conviction that the match will not reach a decisive conclusion by the settlement deadline of 1 June.

Both players operate at the margins of professional tennis, where fixture cancellations, walkovers, and scheduling delays occur more frequently than at elite levels. Justo and Marmousez have limited recent ranking visibility in major databases, typical of players competing primarily on the Challenger circuit or regional tours. Historical precedent from similar-tier events shows that matches scheduled for early morning slots (4:00 AM ET) in secondary European venues face elevated risk of postponement due to weather, player withdrawal, or tournament logistics. The seven-day grace period built into the settlement terms acknowledges this structural uncertainty.

Traders monitoring this market should track official ATP or Challenger draw confirmations as the May date approaches, alongside any weather forecasts for Kosice in late May. Withdrawal announcements typically emerge 48 to 72 hours before scheduled play. The current zero probability may reflect genuine market thinness rather than informed bearishness; even modest confirmation of both players' participation and fitness would likely shift implied odds materially. Settlement hinges entirely on whether a winner is determined and formally recorded before 1 June 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.